Republicans in Wisconsin are in an endless cycle of demonizing, demeaning and defunding Milwaukee. Hosting the RNC here would be a tough pill to swallow. But the political reality might demand it.
We are very disappointed that you commit the same act of journalistic irresponsibility as local TV stations and the Journal Sentinel, Dan, when you accept without questioning the myth that the convention will bring $200,000,000 to the city. That is a totally fictional number, repeated over and over by "Visit Milwaukee," the Chamber of Commerce, Mayor Johnson, and other shills for hosting.
This number comes not from serious or professional economic analysis, but rather from promotional materials by the "Cleveland Host Committee” after it hosted the RNC in 2016. In short, the promotional organization Visit Milwaukee is simply repeating a public relations point from its equivalent promotional organization in Cleveland.
Now, there is a Cleveland State report that the host committee paid for and got exactly what it paid for: academic cover for an event that did nothing for most citizens in Cleveland. That study is neither peer-reviewed nor based on responsible economics. It commits the cardinal sin of promotional “economic impact studies”: it ignores the basic economic impacts of the “substitution effect” and “leakage.”
It simply takes the total amount of direct spending during the convention and applies a multiplier to come up with an inflated total economic impact. It is entirely fictitious because it does not subtract from this total the amount of direct spending that would have taken place in Cleveland during that period without the convention. It simply multiplies, for example, the number of occupied hotel rooms by the average daily cost and claims that as enhanced economic impact. However, this method does not account for how many of those hotel rooms would be occupied during that period anyway! In other words, it does not account for the economic activity that the convention substitutes for.
Ironically, the Cleveland State study does provide the very data that disproves its own conclusion. The occupancy rate in 2016 during the week of the convention was 89.8%, only marginally higher than in 2014 when the rate was 84.1%. Cleveland’s occupancy rate in the year before the convention was lower at 69.6%. Without subtracting that economic impact from the occupancy figure’s impact during the convention, Cleveland State is counting all dollars as the convention’s economic impact, which they certainly are not. To put it simply they are ignoring the economic principle of opportunity costs. Hence, $200,000,000 is entirely inflated.
With all of our festivals, Brewers games and lovely lakefront, our hotels and restaurants are pretty darn full every summer anyway. By not accounting for that, Visit Milwaukee is making a totally irresponsible claim.
That takes us to leakage. Even the dramatically flawed Cleveland St. study indicates that the greatest profit for hotels during the Cleveland RNC came from price-gouging during the convention: hotels jacking up the average cost per room from $90/night to $260/night. That money doesn’t go to the cleaning staff, desk clerks or other hospitality workers; rather, it “leaks” out of the host city to corporate headquarters of hotel chains.
The other form of leakage we would have in Milwaukee would be to Illinois. Almost half the hotel reservations from the 2020 DNC (47%) were in Illinois, and that will be no different in 2024. So responsible economic analysis dictates that whatever spending that is associated with hotels would have to be modified to take into account the Milwaukee situation being so close to another state border. Plus, unlike Cleveland, Milwaukee is close to a gigantic airport – O’Hare -- with preferable flight connections for the delegates. In addition, Chicago offers a much wider variety of entertainment for these well-heeled delegates. Clearly it is ridiculous to use a Cleveland number to predict Milwaukee results.
Other local sectors that the Cleveland study shows profiting from the convention are Uber drivers and Airbnb owners, who also were able to jack up their prices. Hospitality and service workers make no more money from the presence of the authoritarians and white supremacists roaming our streets than they would normally.
Now, there is a peer-reviewed, serious, professional study on the economic impact of every political convention from 1970 to 2004 that DOES take into account opportunity costs, the substitution effect, and leakage. That study, cited below, found that national political conventions have no discernable impact on employment, personal income and disposable personal income. It concludes: “People should view promises of economic windfalls from hosting national political conventions in the same way they should view the campaign promises of the candidates at these very conventions – with skepticism.”
I hope you’ll compare the two documents and write about how Visit Milwaukee, Tim Sheehy and the Mayor’s office pulled the wool over your eyes, Dan. Responsible journalism requires questioning rather than simply accepting talking points.
This Republican party is the party of fascists and racists. That's their creed. Normally, one does not work with Republicans. Republicans dictate. I, for one, don't want them here.
"Refusing to play ball is not a long-term solution – and that goes both ways. Milwaukee is going to need to work with Republicans, and Republicans are going to need to work with Milwaukee."
When the GOP has all the power and also gets their convention, what incentive is there for them to ever work with the city? They already are getting everything they want. Portraying the city as a crime-infested, morally-bankrupt liberal enclave to their suburban and rural constituents is one of the ways to sow division and retain their power. They don't care that their inaction on revenue hurts the biggest economic engine of the state. Great piece Dan, but I don't find the last paragraphs realistic.
If DNC had any balls and sense, they'd announce Milwaukee as their choice for 2024 DNC day before RNC announces their choice.
We are very disappointed that you commit the same act of journalistic irresponsibility as local TV stations and the Journal Sentinel, Dan, when you accept without questioning the myth that the convention will bring $200,000,000 to the city. That is a totally fictional number, repeated over and over by "Visit Milwaukee," the Chamber of Commerce, Mayor Johnson, and other shills for hosting.
This number comes not from serious or professional economic analysis, but rather from promotional materials by the "Cleveland Host Committee” after it hosted the RNC in 2016. In short, the promotional organization Visit Milwaukee is simply repeating a public relations point from its equivalent promotional organization in Cleveland.
Now, there is a Cleveland State report that the host committee paid for and got exactly what it paid for: academic cover for an event that did nothing for most citizens in Cleveland. That study is neither peer-reviewed nor based on responsible economics. It commits the cardinal sin of promotional “economic impact studies”: it ignores the basic economic impacts of the “substitution effect” and “leakage.”
It simply takes the total amount of direct spending during the convention and applies a multiplier to come up with an inflated total economic impact. It is entirely fictitious because it does not subtract from this total the amount of direct spending that would have taken place in Cleveland during that period without the convention. It simply multiplies, for example, the number of occupied hotel rooms by the average daily cost and claims that as enhanced economic impact. However, this method does not account for how many of those hotel rooms would be occupied during that period anyway! In other words, it does not account for the economic activity that the convention substitutes for.
Ironically, the Cleveland State study does provide the very data that disproves its own conclusion. The occupancy rate in 2016 during the week of the convention was 89.8%, only marginally higher than in 2014 when the rate was 84.1%. Cleveland’s occupancy rate in the year before the convention was lower at 69.6%. Without subtracting that economic impact from the occupancy figure’s impact during the convention, Cleveland State is counting all dollars as the convention’s economic impact, which they certainly are not. To put it simply they are ignoring the economic principle of opportunity costs. Hence, $200,000,000 is entirely inflated.
With all of our festivals, Brewers games and lovely lakefront, our hotels and restaurants are pretty darn full every summer anyway. By not accounting for that, Visit Milwaukee is making a totally irresponsible claim.
That takes us to leakage. Even the dramatically flawed Cleveland St. study indicates that the greatest profit for hotels during the Cleveland RNC came from price-gouging during the convention: hotels jacking up the average cost per room from $90/night to $260/night. That money doesn’t go to the cleaning staff, desk clerks or other hospitality workers; rather, it “leaks” out of the host city to corporate headquarters of hotel chains.
The other form of leakage we would have in Milwaukee would be to Illinois. Almost half the hotel reservations from the 2020 DNC (47%) were in Illinois, and that will be no different in 2024. So responsible economic analysis dictates that whatever spending that is associated with hotels would have to be modified to take into account the Milwaukee situation being so close to another state border. Plus, unlike Cleveland, Milwaukee is close to a gigantic airport – O’Hare -- with preferable flight connections for the delegates. In addition, Chicago offers a much wider variety of entertainment for these well-heeled delegates. Clearly it is ridiculous to use a Cleveland number to predict Milwaukee results.
Other local sectors that the Cleveland study shows profiting from the convention are Uber drivers and Airbnb owners, who also were able to jack up their prices. Hospitality and service workers make no more money from the presence of the authoritarians and white supremacists roaming our streets than they would normally.
Now, there is a peer-reviewed, serious, professional study on the economic impact of every political convention from 1970 to 2004 that DOES take into account opportunity costs, the substitution effect, and leakage. That study, cited below, found that national political conventions have no discernable impact on employment, personal income and disposable personal income. It concludes: “People should view promises of economic windfalls from hosting national political conventions in the same way they should view the campaign promises of the candidates at these very conventions – with skepticism.”
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/46526401_Rejecting_Conventional_Wisdom_Estimating_the_Economic_Impact_of_National_Political_Conventions
I hope you’ll compare the two documents and write about how Visit Milwaukee, Tim Sheehy and the Mayor’s office pulled the wool over your eyes, Dan. Responsible journalism requires questioning rather than simply accepting talking points.
Charlie Dee
Michael Rosen
This Republican party is the party of fascists and racists. That's their creed. Normally, one does not work with Republicans. Republicans dictate. I, for one, don't want them here.
"Refusing to play ball is not a long-term solution – and that goes both ways. Milwaukee is going to need to work with Republicans, and Republicans are going to need to work with Milwaukee."
When the GOP has all the power and also gets their convention, what incentive is there for them to ever work with the city? They already are getting everything they want. Portraying the city as a crime-infested, morally-bankrupt liberal enclave to their suburban and rural constituents is one of the ways to sow division and retain their power. They don't care that their inaction on revenue hurts the biggest economic engine of the state. Great piece Dan, but I don't find the last paragraphs realistic.
Take ALL their money and rally the protestors. This is an organizing tool if Dems can step up.